How the Ad Frequency Fatigue Score is calculated

The goal is a single number that behaves like a practical “warning light.” We’re not trying to predict the exact CTR tomorrow. We’re trying to answer a simpler, more useful question: “Given what I’m seeing, how likely is my audience to be getting tired of this ad?”

The calculator turns each input into a 0–1 risk component (0 = no risk, 1 = high risk), then combines those components using weights. Finally, we scale to 0–100 for readability. The main idea: fatigue risk rises when repetition meets limited novelty and negative trend signals.

• Frequency risk (F): higher impressions per person increases risk non‑linearly (it ramps after ~3–4). We use a smooth curve: F = 1 − e^(−freq/k), where k depends on your window.
• Saturation risk (S): as reach approaches 100% in the window, you have fewer “fresh” people left. We use S = (reach% / 100) ^ 1.6 to emphasize the last stretch.
• Creative age risk (A): the longer the same creative runs, the more likely it stops earning attention. We use A = 1 − e^(−age/τ), where τ (tau) is a time constant (~18 days by default).
• Variety protection (V): more creatives spreads impressions and reduces repetition. Instead of “risk,” variety acts as a risk reducer: V = 1 − (1 / sqrt(creatives)). With 1 creative, V = 0 (no protection). With 4 creatives, V ≈ 0.5 (meaningful protection).
• CTR decline risk (C): if CTR is down vs baseline, that’s a classic fatigue signal. We map CTR change into risk where 0% decline = 0 risk and −60% or worse saturates near 1.
• CPA increase risk (P): if CPA is rising, the auction and intent response are worsening. 0% increase = 0 risk; +100% or more saturates near 1.

Not every factor matters equally. Frequency and trend signals tend to be the loudest early warnings, while creative age and saturation often explain why frequency starts hurting. This calculator uses the following weights (which you can treat as “reasonable defaults”):

• Frequency: 26%
• Creative age: 18%
• Saturation: 16%
• CTR change: 18%
• CPA change: 14%
• Variety protection: −8% (reduces risk)

After combining those components, we scale to a 0–100 score and attach a label:

• 0–24: Fresh — your audience likely still has attention. Keep monitoring.
• 25–49: Watch — early fatigue risk. Start preparing new creative and consider light caps.
• 50–74: High risk — fatigue is probably influencing performance. Act (cap/refresh/expand).
• 75–100: Burnout risk — likely heavy repetition. Protect budget and rebuild with new angles.

The score is intentionally conservative: it’s better to nudge you toward a controlled test than to let you unknowingly spend into a saturated audience for another week.

Three realistic scenarios

These examples show how the same spend can feel “fine” or “painful” depending on repetition and novelty. Try matching one of these in the sliders and watch the score change.

• Window: 7 days · Frequency: 2.5 · Saturation: 25%
• Creative age: 5 days · Creatives: 6
• CTR change: +5% · CPA change: −8%

Likely result: low fatigue. You’re still learning and your audience hasn’t been over‑served. Next step: keep testing hooks, not caps.

• Window: 7 days · Frequency: 8 · Saturation: 70%
• Creative age: 28 days · Creatives: 2
• CTR change: −25% · CPA change: +30%

Likely result: high fatigue risk. The “winner” is now doing extra work to earn the same attention. Next step: add 3–5 new variants of the hook, cap frequency, and expand targeting.

• Window: 7 days · Frequency: 14 · Saturation: 90%
• Creative age: 20 days · Creatives: 1
• CTR change: −40% · CPA change: +70%

Likely result: burnout risk. This is common in retargeting when the pool is small. Next step: shorten the retargeting window, lower bids, rotate creatives weekly, and add exclusions.

Turn the score into a clean experiment plan

A “fatigue score” is only useful if it helps you decide what to do next. Here’s a simple workflow that keeps you out of panic mode and into measurement mode:

Pick one cadence — weekly is easiest — and save a snapshot. Fatigue is a trend problem. One score doesn’t matter as much as the direction over time.

This calculator highlights a “Primary lever” (frequency, creative age, saturation, or trend signals). That lever is the best first test because it is most likely to lower repetition pressure quickly.

• If frequency is the issue: add a cap or broaden audience. You can often stabilize performance without changing the offer.
• If creative age is the issue: refresh the hook (new angle, new proof, new framing). Don’t just swap colors.
• If saturation is the issue: expand targeting, add new segments, or widen geo. A small audience can’t absorb heavy spend forever.
• If CTR/CPA trends are the issue: check placement mix, creative mismatch, landing page speed, or offer competitiveness — fatigue may be a contributor, not the only cause.

Your recovery signal could be CTR returning closer to baseline, CPA stabilizing, or frequency dropping while volume holds. If the score falls but performance does not improve, fatigue wasn’t the main bottleneck — and that’s still a valuable answer.

Most teams don’t “fail” because they have bad ideas. They fail because they have no cadence. A simple operating system is enough: ship 2–5 new creatives weekly, rotate formats, and keep one “control” creative to monitor drift.

Practical note: platform frequency definitions vary. Use this tool as a normalized lens, then confirm with your platform’s frequency + reach breakdowns (especially by audience segment).

Frequently Asked Questions

• What’s a “good” frequency?

  It depends on audience size, intent, and your window. Cold audiences often tolerate lower frequency (2–5 per 7 days), while retargeting can be higher but burns out faster. Use the score to judge whether your frequency level is paired with enough novelty (creative variety) and enough “fresh people” (low saturation).

• How do I define “baseline” for CTR/CPA change?

  Baseline can mean your first 3–7 days after learning, or the last month average before performance shifted. If you don’t have a strong baseline, set CTR change to 0% and rely more on frequency/age/saturation until you do.

• Can CPA rise without fatigue?

  Yes. Auctions change, competitors launch promos, seasonality hits, landing pages slow down, or targeting shifts. That’s why CPA change is only one factor, not the whole score. If CPA is up but CTR is stable and frequency is low, fatigue may not be the culprit.

• Should I pause ads immediately when the score is high?

  Not automatically. High risk means “protect budget and test.” Often you can add a cap, rotate creatives, or expand targeting without pausing. Pausing is a tool — not a requirement.

• Why does “creatives in rotation” reduce risk?

  Because repetition is the enemy. More creatives means each person is less likely to see the exact same message repeatedly. It’s not magic — weak creatives won’t help — but variety is a proven antidote to burnout.

• What’s the most common fatigue mistake?

  Letting a winning creative run until it collapses — then rebuilding from scratch in a panic. A healthier pattern is to refresh while things are still working, so you’re layering learnings rather than restarting.

Important assumptions

This calculator uses a generalized model of fatigue behavior. Platforms differ (Meta, Google, TikTok, LinkedIn), and each campaign’s creative + audience combination behaves uniquely. Still, the underlying mechanics are consistent: repetition reduces attention, and novelty restores it.

• If your audience is tiny, even “reasonable” spend can create high frequency quickly.
• If your offer is seasonal, CPA can rise for reasons unrelated to fatigue.
• If you rotate creatives aggressively, your fatigue risk can fall even with moderate frequency.