The projection formula (step‑by‑step)

The calculator turns simple funnel assumptions into a monthly and multi‑month projection. It starts with traffic (leads), estimates buyers using conversion rate, subtracts refunds, then subtracts variable costs like payment fees, affiliate payouts, and support costs. Finally, it adds optional upsell revenue and subtracts your marketing spend and a one‑time production cost to estimate profit and break‑even.

• Buyers = Leads × Conversion Rate
• Example: 2,000 leads × 2.0% = 40 buyers

• Gross revenue = Buyers × Course Price
• Example: 40 buyers × $199 = $7,960

• Refund amount = Gross Revenue × Refund Rate
• Revenue after refunds = Gross Revenue − Refund amount
• Example: $7,960 × 5% = $398 refunded → $7,562 after refunds

• Fees = Revenue after refunds × Payment Fee %
• Example: $7,562 × 4.9% ≈ $371

• Affiliate revenue = Revenue after refunds × (Affiliate share of sales)
• Affiliate payout = Affiliate revenue × Commission %
• Example: If 30% of sales are affiliate and commission is 30% → payout ≈ 0.30 × 0.30 = 9% of revenue after refunds

• Support cost = Buyers × Support cost per student
• Example: 40 buyers × $3 = $120

• Upsell buyers = Buyers × Upsell take rate
• Upsell revenue = Upsell buyers × Upsell price
• Example: 40 buyers × 10% = 4 upsells → 4 × $99 = $396

• Net revenue = (Revenue after refunds − Fees − Affiliate payout − Support cost) + Upsell revenue
• Profit = Net revenue − Marketing spend
• Cumulative profit = Sum of monthly profit − One‑time production cost

• Break‑even is the first month where cumulative profit becomes ≥ 0.
• If it never crosses 0 within your projection window, you’ll see “Not yet” — meaning you either need more traffic, higher conversion, a higher price, lower costs, or more time.

Frequently Asked Questions

• Is this a guarantee of my future revenue?

  No — it’s a planning tool. The output is only as good as your assumptions. Use it for “what‑if” scenarios.

• What conversion rate should I use?

  It depends on offer quality and traffic source. Cold traffic might convert below 1%. Warm lists and webinars can be 2–10%+. Start conservative, then test.

• Why include refunds?

  Refunds are a real revenue leak. They often spike when expectations are unclear or onboarding is weak. If refunds are high, fix the promise and the first 15 minutes of the course.

• How do affiliates affect profit?

  Affiliates can increase volume, but they trade margin for distribution. If 50% of sales are affiliate and commission is 40%, that’s ~20% of your revenue (post‑refunds) paid out — before fees and support.

• What’s a “good” profit margin for courses?

  Many creators aim for 30–60% after ad spend on a mature funnel. Early on, margins may be lower while you test. If you’re above 60% sustainably, you have room to scale or run promos.

• Does this include taxes?

  No. Taxes vary widely. Treat profit here as “pre‑tax operating profit.”

Course revenue projection (the practical guide)

A course can be one of the highest‑margin digital products — but only if you treat it like a business, not a hobby. Most revenue projections fail for one of two reasons: (1) they ignore funnel math (leads → buyers → refunds), or (2) they ignore leakage (fees, affiliates, support time, and ad spend). This page is built to make the economics obvious.

The fastest way to use this calculator is to start with a realistic lead number. “Leads” can mean page visitors, webinar registrations, email subscribers, or any measurable top‑of‑funnel unit — just be consistent. Then set a conservative conversion rate. If you don’t know your conversion rate yet, pick 1–2% for cold traffic, 2–5% for warm audiences, and 5–10% for webinars or high‑trust communities.

• Conversion rate: Usually the biggest lever. A move from 1% to 2% literally doubles sales.
• Price: Powerful, but only if you can maintain conversion (value perception matters).
• Traffic quality: Warm audiences can outperform cold traffic by 3–10×.
• Revenue per buyer: Upsells and bundles increase average revenue without needing more leads.

Refunds are often treated as “noise,” but they’re a signal. High refunds can indicate a mismatch between promise and experience, unclear prerequisites, or weak onboarding. If your refund rate is above ~10% on a mature offer, it’s worth investigating. A strong onboarding sequence (first lesson, quick win, clear roadmap) often reduces refunds more effectively than tightening policy language.

Payment fees (Stripe, PayPal) and platform fees can look small, but they stack. A 4.9% blended fee on $100,000 of revenue is $4,900 — before ads, refunds, or support time. If you use a marketplace or “all‑in‑one” platform with additional fees, model them here by increasing the fee slider.

Affiliates can be your fastest growth channel once your offer converts — but they’re also expensive. The calculator separates affiliate share of sales (how much of your volume is driven by affiliates) from commission (what you pay them). This matters because “30% commission” might be totally fine if affiliates are only 10% of sales — and brutal if they’re 70% of sales.

Upsells (templates, audits, group coaching, a higher tier) increase average revenue per buyer. The best upsells are not random add‑ons — they are the next logical step. If your core course teaches a skill, the upsell might be “implementation help.” If your course teaches a system, the upsell might be “done‑for‑you templates.” Even a 10% upsell rate can materially change profitability without needing more leads.

Suppose you have 2,000 visitors/month, a $199 course, a 2% conversion rate, 5% refunds, 4.9% fees, no affiliates, and a $99 upsell taken by 10% of buyers. You’ll see ~40 buyers/month and roughly: $7,960 gross → minus refunds and fees → plus upsells → net revenue in the mid‑$7k range. If marketing spend is $0 and support costs are small, this can be a strong side income — and a foundation for scaling.

Now imagine you spend $3,000/month on ads to drive 3,500 leads/month, but conversion is only 1.2% because traffic is cold. Same price ($199) and 5% refunds. Even if revenue looks decent, profit might be tight after ad spend. This is why the calculator shows net revenue and profit separately: a funnel can “look good” on revenue and still lose money.

Affiliates can take you from $10k/month to $100k/month, but you must price for it. If 50% of your sales are affiliate and commission is 40%, that’s about 20% of revenue after refunds paid out — then fees — then support — then ads (if any). Many creators raise price or add a premium tier to keep margins healthy.

A target like “$10,000 net revenue per month” becomes practical when you translate it into leads: Required Leads ≈ Target Net Revenue ÷ Net Revenue per Lead. Net revenue per lead is what’s left after refunds, fees, affiliates, support, and (optionally) ad spend. If required leads feel impossibly high, you have a clear signal: your best move is improving conversion, increasing price, or adding an upsell — not grinding harder.

• Share a “before vs after”: “My funnel went from 1.1% → 2.3% conversion. Here’s what that did to revenue.”
• Post your assumptions: “I’m launching a $299 course. What conversion rate should I model?”
• Use a challenge: “Can you hit $10k/month with zero ads? Plug your numbers and see.”
• Teach the leaks: Most creators don’t model refunds + fees + affiliates. That’s a share‑worthy insight.

The goal isn’t to predict the future perfectly. The goal is to choose the most efficient lever to pull next — so you can ship a profitable course with fewer surprises.

What your results mean

The results box shows monthly net revenue, profit, margin, and break‑even timing. Here’s how to read it quickly:

• This is revenue after refunds, fees, affiliates, and support — plus upsells.
• It’s the best “reality check” number for course economics.

• Profit = Net revenue − monthly marketing spend.
• Then we subtract your one‑time production cost when calculating break‑even.

• Margin = Profit ÷ Net revenue (when net revenue is positive).
• 30%+ is often a healthy mature funnel. 60%+ is exceptional.

• If break‑even is “Month 2,” that means your first 2 months of profit cover production cost.
• If it’s “Not yet,” try increasing conversion by 0.5–1.0 points or adding a small upsell.

• Using a conversion rate from warm traffic to model cold ads.
• Ignoring refunds (or assuming 0%).
• Forgetting affiliate payouts and support time.
• Modeling “best case” only — run conservative and optimistic scenarios.

Want the simplest improvement? Increase conversion by 0.5% and rerun. Then increase price by $50 and rerun. Compare which lever gives more profit per unit of effort.

Before you launch your course

If you want your projection to become reality, your job is to make each input defendable:

• Leads: Do you have a predictable traffic source (email list, partnerships, ads)?
• Conversion: Is your promise clear, specific, and believable for your audience?
• Refunds: Is onboarding strong and expectations set correctly?
• Upsell: Is there an obvious next step after the course?
• Costs: Do you know your ad cost per lead and time cost per student?

Run three scenarios: conservative, expected, and aggressive. If conservative still works, you’re in a strong position.