📚 Formula breakdown
How the Overtraining Risk Score is calculated
Your Overtraining Warning Score is a 0–100 number designed for one job: quickly estimating whether the
way you’re training right now is likely to outpace your recovery. It’s not a medical diagnosis and it won’t tell you
“you have overtraining syndrome.” Instead, it looks for the pattern that usually comes before that point:
rising load combined with worsening recovery signals.
The calculator uses a simple weighted model. Think of it like a checklist where some items matter more than others.
Training load matters, but so do the signs your body gives you when it’s struggling to adapt. The score is built from
two big buckets:
- Load points (up to 40 points): how much stress you’re applying (hours × intensity, plus how often you train).
- Recovery + signal points (up to 60 points): sleep, soreness duration, mood/irritability, life stress, fueling, resting HR change, and performance trend.
Step 1: Calculate Training Load Score (0–40)
We estimate a “training load” using hours per week and average intensity (RPE). RPE is a 1–10 scale where 10 is maximal.
For example, a week with 6 hours at RPE 6 is generally less stressful than 6 hours at RPE 9. We then add a small penalty
for very high session frequency because frequent hard sessions can limit recovery even when total hours look reasonable.
- Base load:
hours × intensity
- Session density: more sessions can raise fatigue even if total hours stay the same
The calculator converts that into points from 0–40. Very low load weeks will be near 0–10 points. High load (a lot of hours,
high intensity, many sessions) can approach 40 points.
Step 2: Add Recovery & Signal Points (0–60)
Recovery points reflect the most common “early warning signs” people notice when training is exceeding recovery.
These signals can show up even when your workouts look fine on paper:
- Sleep: sleep is where adaptation happens. Less sleep raises risk quickly.
- Soreness duration: normal soreness is fine; soreness that never resolves is a signal.
- Mood/irritability: overreaching often shows up as feeling “wired but tired,” anxious, or snappy.
- Life stress: training stress + work/family stress still lands in the same nervous system.
- Fueling consistency: under-eating can mimic or worsen overtraining signs.
- Resting HR increase: a sustained jump in resting HR can be a recovery red flag for some people.
- Performance trend: plateaus are normal; a sustained drop + fatigue is a warning combo.
Each category adds points. For example, sleeping 8 hours tends to add very few points, while sleeping 5–6 hours adds more.
Likewise, “performance improving” adds almost nothing, while “major drop for weeks” adds a lot. When these signals stack,
the score rises quickly—which is exactly the point.
Step 3: Convert total points into a 0–100 score
After load points and recovery points are combined, the result is clamped to a 0–100 scale and mapped to a clear label:
- 0–24 (Low): you look generally recovered. Keep training but keep monitoring.
- 25–49 (Moderate): some caution signs. Consider a small adjustment (sleep, intensity, rest day).
- 50–74 (High): multiple warning signals. A deload or recovery week is strongly recommended.
- 75–100 (Very High): stacked red flags. Reduce load and prioritize recovery; consider professional guidance if persistent.
Important nuance: a high score doesn’t mean you’re “weak.” It means your current inputs suggest you’re not recovering as fast
as you’re training. The fix is often boring and effective: slightly lower intensity for a few days, sleep more, eat better,
and retest.
🧪 Examples
Real-world examples (so you can sanity-check your result)
Example 1: The “healthy hard” week (score ~20–35)
Inputs: 5 hours/week, 4–5 sessions, moderate intensity (RPE 5–6), sleep 7.5 hours, no HR change, soreness 1–2 days,
stable mood, low stress, consistent fueling, performance stable.
Why it scores low: Load is reasonable and the recovery signals are good. Even if you’re training consistently,
your body appears to be adapting. This is the sweet spot where you can keep building.
Example 2: The “I’m busy but pushing” week (score ~40–60)
Inputs: 7 hours/week, 6 sessions, hard intensity (RPE 7–8), sleep 6.2 hours, +1–3 bpm resting HR, soreness 2–3 days,
mood “a bit off,” moderate to high stress, fueling mostly okay, slight plateau.
What it means: This looks like classic overreaching—not necessarily a disaster, but a warning that you’re living
at the edge of recovery. Small changes matter here: drop intensity for 3–5 days, add sleep, and you’ll often see the score fall.
Example 3: The “stacked red flags” week (score ~70–90)
Inputs: 10–12 hours/week, 8 sessions, very hard intensity (RPE 9–10), sleep 5.5 hours, resting HR +4–7 bpm, soreness 4–5 days,
irritable/anxious, very high stress, often under-fueled, noticeable performance drop.
What it means: Not one thing—everything. This is where people get sick, injured, or burn out. The best move is to reduce load quickly:
take a recovery week, keep movement easy, and rebuild from a healthier baseline.
Example 4: Low hours but still high risk (score ~55–75)
Inputs: 3–4 hours/week, 4 sessions, hard intensity, sleep 5–6 hours, high life stress, low mood, under-fueled, performance dropping.
Why it can still score high: Overtraining risk is not only “too many hours.” Low sleep + high stress + under-fueling can make even moderate
training feel crushing. This example is a reminder: recovery is part of training.