How the Proposal Win Rate Tracker works

This calculator has two parts: a baseline tracker and a planning model. The baseline tracker is the simple, objective math you can pull from your CRM, inbox, or spreadsheet: how many proposals you sent, how many you won, and what your typical deal is worth. From those three numbers, you can compute a win rate and an expected revenue range. The planning model then lets you explore “what if” improvements using sliders that reflect how sales typically changes in real life: better targeting, clearer positioning, consistent follow-up, and faster turnaround.

Your baseline win rate is: Win Rate = Deals Won ÷ Proposals Sent. If you sent 20 proposals and won 4, your win rate is 4 ÷ 20 = 0.20, or 20%. This one metric is powerful because it converts “busy work” into a measurable sales engine. Instead of hoping a month is good, you can predict what a month is likely to produce.

Once you have a win rate, expected revenue follows: Expected Revenue = Proposals Sent × Win Rate × Average Deal Value. Using the same example (20 proposals, 20% win rate, $5,000 average deal), expected revenue is 20 × 0.20 × 5,000 = $20,000 for the chosen timeframe. If your gross margin is 60%, estimated gross profit is $20,000 × 0.60 = $12,000. Gross margin is optional — it’s included because many service businesses and agencies get trapped by top-line revenue that doesn’t translate into profit. Seeing profit helps you focus on winning the right deals, not just more deals.

Most people track win rate but don’t know how to improve it. In practice, a few levers drive the majority of conversion changes: lead quality (how well prospects match your offer), proposal clarity & fit (how clearly the buyer understands value and outcome), follow‑up discipline (how consistently you re‑engage), and speed (how quickly you respond and send the proposal). The sliders let you model these levers without pretending the future is guaranteed.

The calculator converts those four slider values into a lift factor — a percentage change applied to your baseline win rate. It is intentionally simple and transparent:

• Each lever is scored from 1–10. A “6” is a reasonable baseline for an operating business.
• Scores above 6 create positive lift, scores below 6 create negative lift (meaning your baseline may be inflated if things were unusually favorable).
• The lift is capped so the tool stays realistic (you can’t jump from 5% win rate to 95% by moving sliders).

Internally, the tool computes an improvement score: ImproveScore = weighted average of slider deltas, where each delta is (slider − 6). The weights are chosen to match common sales reality: lead quality is the biggest lever, followed by proposal clarity, then follow-up, then speed. That improvement score becomes a lift percentage applied to your baseline: Expected Win Rate = Baseline Win Rate × (1 + Lift). Lift is clamped between −30% and +80% to keep it grounded.

Why clamp? Because conversion is bounded by market constraints: competition, budget, timing, procurement, and authority. Even if your execution becomes elite, the market may not allow extreme win rates. The cap prevents unrealistic outputs while still letting the calculator show meaningful differences.

If you enter a revenue target, the calculator estimates how many proposals you need using the selected target win rate slider: Proposals Needed = Target Revenue ÷ (Target Win Rate × Average Deal Value). If your target is $50,000, your target win rate is 25%, and your average deal is $5,000: Proposals Needed = 50,000 ÷ (0.25 × 5,000) = 50,000 ÷ 1,250 = 40 proposals.

This is the most “viral” insight for many people because it turns a vague goal (“I want $50k months”) into a concrete plan (“I need ~40 proposals at 25% win rate, or I need to raise deal size, or I need to raise win rate”). You can win by improving any of the three multipliers: volume, conversion, or deal size.

Suppose you’re a consultant sending proposals for strategy projects. Over the last 90 days, you sent 60 proposals and won 9. Your average deal is $8,000 and margin is 70%. Baseline win rate = 9 ÷ 60 = 15%. Baseline expected revenue for the period = 60 × 0.15 × 8,000 = $72,000. Gross profit estimate = $72,000 × 0.70 = $50,400.

Now you decide to improve two things: you tighten lead quality by targeting one niche and disqualifying low-budget leads (lead quality slider from 6 → 8), and you commit to a consistent follow-up sequence (follow-up slider 6 → 8). The calculator translates that into lift (for example, +25–35% depending on other sliders), so your expected win rate might rise from 15% to ~19–20%. Then expected revenue becomes 60 × 0.20 × 8,000 = $96,000. That’s a $24k swing without increasing proposal volume.

The point isn’t that the future is guaranteed. The point is that the math makes tradeoffs visible. If you can’t increase volume, you work conversion and deal size. If you can’t increase deal size, you work volume and conversion. If conversion is already high, you protect it by focusing on fit and process.

Sales outcomes are noisy. Two people can do the same thing and get different results in a short window. To reflect this, the tracker estimates a simple “confidence” score based on sample size. When you’ve sent only 5 proposals, win rate is extremely volatile: one extra win changes the rate dramatically. When you’ve sent 100 proposals, the rate is more stable. The calculator uses a gentle sample-size curve to label your baseline as Low, Medium, or High confidence. This helps you avoid overreacting to small samples.

• Track in a rolling window: last 90 days is often better than last 30 days.
• Raise lead quality first: your best marketing is saying “no” to bad-fit leads.
• Make the proposal about outcomes: the buyer wants a result, not a PDF.
• Follow up with a system: 3–6 touches beats a single “just checking in.”
• Use this tool weekly: plan your activity before you’re “behind.”

Remember: this model is a planning tool. Use it to think clearly, not to predict the future with certainty. If you want higher win rates, focus on controllable behaviors, measure consistently, and refine the system over time.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What counts as a “proposal”?

  Count anything that represents a real, comparable ask: a written scope, pricing doc, SOW, or formal quote. If you “send a quick number” and it behaves like a proposal in your process, include it — consistency matters more than perfection.

• Should I track proposals sent or discovery calls?

  Track both if you can, but proposals are a great “bottom-of-funnel” metric because they’re closer to revenue. If you want to diagnose funnel health, pair this with a discovery-to-proposal conversion metric.

• My business has retainers. How do I set average deal value?

  Use the value of the first contract (e.g., first 3 months), or use the average expected revenue over a standard onboarding period. The key is to use the same definition each time so the trend is comparable.

• What’s a “good” win rate?

  It depends on your market and how qualified your leads are. Many service businesses land in the 15–35% range. Very high win rates can be a sign you’re underpricing or only bidding on warm leads. Very low win rates can be a sign of weak fit, weak positioning, or inconsistent follow-up.

• Why can the expected win rate differ from my baseline?

  Because the sliders model execution changes. If you expect improvement (better leads, clearer offers, more consistent follow-up), expected win rate rises. If you’re experiencing worse conditions than usual, expected win rate can fall.

• Is the “lift model” scientifically accurate?

  It’s not a scientific prediction model. It’s a transparent planning heuristic: “If I improve the levers that commonly affect conversion, how might that change outcomes?” You can treat it as a scenario tool and adjust assumptions over time.

• How should I use this weekly?

  Pick a timeframe (often last 90 days), update sent/won and deal size, then enter your next-period target revenue. Use the “proposals needed” output to plan outreach and pipeline-building. Then commit to one lever improvement for the week.

• Does this save my data?

  Only if you click “Save,” and even then it saves locally in your browser on this device. Nothing is sent to a server.

Make it shareable (without being spammy)

This calculator is designed to generate an “aha” moment you can share: “To hit $X, I need ~Y proposals at Z% win rate.” That single sentence is easy to post on LinkedIn/Twitter/X or send to a teammate. Use the share buttons to copy a clean summary.

• Update sent/won for the last 30 or 90 days.
• Enter your target revenue for the next period.
• Pick one lever to improve by 1 point this week.
• Repeat every week. Compounding is the goal.